Understanding and applying pharmacometric modelling and simulation in clinical practice and research

Understanding the dose-concentration-effect relationship is a fundamental component of clinical pharmacology. Interpreting data arising from observations of this relationship requires the use of mathematical models; i.e. pharmacokinetic (PK) models to describe the relationship between dose and concentration and pharmacodynamic (PD) models describing the relationship between concentration and effect. Drug development requires several iterations of pharmacometric model-informed learning and confirming. This includes modelling to understand the dose-response in preclinical studies, deriving a safe dose for first-in-man, and the overall analysis of Phase I/II data to optimise the dose for safety and efficacy in Phase III pivotal trials. However, drug development is not the boundary at which PKPD understanding and application stops. PKPD concepts will be useful to anyone involved in the prescribing and administration of medicines for purposes such as determining off-label dosing in special populations, individualising dosing based on a measured biomarker (personalised medicine) and in determining whether lack of efficacy or unexpected toxicity maybe solved by adjusting the dose rather than the drug. In clinical investigator-led study design, PKPD can be used to ensure the optimal dose is used, and crucially to define the expected effect size, thereby ensuring power calculations are based on sound prior information. In the clinical setting the most likely people to hold sufficient expertise to advise on PKPD matters will be the pharmacists and clinical pharmacologists. This paper reviews fundamental PKPD principles and provides some real-world examples of PKPD use in clinical practice and applied clinical research

Diclofenac for acute pain in children: Pharmacokinetics and safety

Diclofenac is commonly used 'off-label' for acute pain in children, and it has been shown to be effective for this indication. There is a five-fold range (0.5 to 2.5mg/kg) in dosing of diclofenac for acute pain in paediatric clinical studies, and little published safety information is available. The metabolism of diclofenac to 4'-hydroxydiclofenac is mediated by CYP2C9, the expression of which may differ during development. Three studies have been undertaken to answer the questions: What dose of diclofenac should be given to children with acute pain What are the adverse effects of diclofenac in children treated for acute pain Does the expression of CYP2C9 change with age in children aged one to 12 years The three studies carried out were: A population pharmacokinetic study on a paediatric day surgery ward investigating a new diclofenac oral suspension, results pooled with adult data supplied by the manufacturer and analysed with NONMEM to produce dosing guidelines a clinical safety study to ascertain common adverse reactions of diclofenac in children with acute pain, followed by a systematic literature review to investigate the type and incidence of rare adverse effects and an investigation of the influence of age and CYP2C9 genotype on the formation of 4'- hydroxydiclofenac in children aged one to 12 years using data collected during the pharmacokinetic study. The optimum dose of diclofenac for acute pain in children is lmg/kg. Diclofenac appeared to cause similar types of adverse reactions in children and adults, although the incidence of gastrointestinal bleeding is possibly lower in children. When diclofenac is used as part of the analgesic regimen in the peri-operative period, children suffer less nausea and vomiting, and no increase in operative bleeding. No differences were found in the expression of CYP2C9 estimated using diclofenac 4'-hydroxylation in children aged one to 12 years, which would appear to confirm in vitro findings in paediatric liver samples

Development of a Novel Multipenicillin Assay and Assessment of the Impact of Analyte Degradation: Lessons for Scavenged Sampling in Antimicrobial Pharmacokinetic Study Design

Penicillins are widely used to treat infections in children, however the evidence is continuing to evolve in defining optimal dosing. Modern paediatric pharmacokinetic study protocols frequently favour opportunistic, “scavenged” sampling. This study aimed to develop a small volume single assay for five major penicillins and to assess the influence of sample degradation on inferences made using pharmacokinetic modelling, to investigate the suitability of scavenged sampling strategies. Using a rapid ultra-high performance liquid chromatographic-tandem mass spectrometric method, an assay for five penicillins (amoxicillin, ampicillin, benzylpenicillin, piperacillin and flucloxacillin) in blood plasma was developed and validated. Penicillin stabilities were evaluated under different conditions. Using these data, the impact of drug degradation on inferences made during pharmacokinetic modelling was evaluated. All evaluated penicillins indicated good stability at room temperature (23 ± 2°C) over 1 hour remaining in the range of 98-103% of the original concentration. More rapid analyte degradation had already occurred after 4 hours with stability ranging from 68% to 99%. Stability over longer periods declined: degradation of up to 60% was observed with delayed sample processing of up to 24 hours. Modelling showed that analyte degradation can lead to a 30% and 28% bias in clearance and volume of distribution, respectively, and falsely show nonlinearity in clearance. Five common penicillins can now be measured in a single low volume blood sample. Beta-lactam chemical instability in plasma can cause misleading pharmacokinetic modelling results, which could impact upon model-based dosing recommendations and the forthcoming era of beta-lactam therapeutic drug monitoring

Predicting CD4 T-cell reconstitution following paediatric haematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

Haematopoietic stem cell transplantation is an increasingly common treatment for children with a range of haematological disorders. Conditioning with cytotoxic chemotherapy and total body irradiation leaves patients severely immunocompromised. T-cell reconstitution can take several years due to delayed restoration of thymic output. Understanding T-cell reconstitution in children is complicated by normal immune system maturation, heterogeneous diagnoses, and sparse uneven sampling due to the long time spans involved. We describe here a mechanistic mathematical model for CD4 T-cell immune reconstitution following pediatric transplantation. Including relevant biology and using mixed-effects modelling allowed the factors affecting reconstitution to be identified. Bayesian predictions for the long-term reconstitution trajectories of individual children were then obtained using early post-transplant data. The model was developed using data from 288 children; its predictive ability validated on data from a further 75 children, with long-term reconstitution predicted accurately in 81% of patients. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

Population Pharmacokinetics of Intraventricular Vancomycin in Neonatal Ventriculitis, A Preterm Pilot Study

AIM: Intraventricular vancomycin is an effective treatment for neonatal ventriculitis, as the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) vancomycin levels reach adequate concentrations to achieve microbiological cure. There is no robust data on intraventricular vancomycin pharmacokinetics in the preterm population. This pilot population pharmacokinetic modelling study examines the pharmacokinetic behaviour of intraventricular vancomycin in the preterm population of < 28 weeks gestation, to inform the feasibility of future prospective studies. METHODS: The study comprised 8 preterm infants with neonatal ventriculitis (median gestation age 25.3 weeks; range 23.9 - 27.7). Population pharmacokinetics (non-linear mixed effects modelling) were described with one- and two-compartment models to fit plasma concentrations of vancomycin. A CSF compartment was added to the plasma modelling and mass transfer examined. Three covariates (serum creatinine, ventricular index (VI) and CSF protein) were tested on the final model. Area under the curve (AUC) and average CSF concentration (C average) predictions were generated from the final model and compared with time to microbiological cure. RESULTS: A one-compartment model provided the best fit to the data. There was no appreciable transfer between plasma and CSF. None of the covariates provided a significant reduction in the objective function value (OFV). Generally, time to sterilisation with higher CSF AUC (0-24) and C average tends to be shorter, however this should be interpreted with caution as data is erratic. CONCLUSION: This pilot population pharmacokinetic analysis provides important information to warrant changes in the management of intraventricular vancomycin treatment in the preterm population, such as the current use of VI as a dosing parameter. Further study with a larger data pool is necessary to investigate the influence of VI on CSF vancomycin and ascertain dosing strategies

Clinical pharmacokinetics and dose recommendations for posaconazole gastroresistant tablets in children with cystic fibrosis.

Objectives: To investigate the population pharmacokinetics of posaconazole gastroresistant tablets in children with cystic fibrosis (CF) and perform simulations to recommend optimal doses. Patients and methods: Children from a paediatric CF centre who had received posaconazole tablets and underwent therapeutic drug monitoring were identified from pharmacy records. Relevant clinical data were collated from case notes and electronic patient records and used to develop an allometrically scaled population pharmacokinetic model. A stepwise covariate model-building exercise evaluated the influence of interacting medicines and liver function. Results: One hundred posaconazole serum concentrations were collected from 37 children with a median age of 14 years (range 7–17). Posaconazole pharmacokinetics were adequately described by a one-compartment model with inter-individual variability on clearance. Dose simulations demonstrated a 77%–83% probability of attaining a trough target of 1 mg/L with a dose of 300 mg every 12 h for two doses then 300 mg once daily (OD) in children aged 6–11 years; and 86%–88% with a dose of 400 mg every 12 h for two doses then 400 mg OD in adolescents aged 12–17 years. This dose scheme also yielded a 90% probability of achieving an AUC of 30 mg·h/L. AUC and trough concentration were highly correlated (r2 = 0.98). Simulations showed that trough concentrations of >0.75 mg/L would exceed an AUC of 30 mg·h/L in 90% of patients. Conclusions: A starting dose of 300 mg OD in those aged 6–11 years and 400 mg OD in those aged 12–17 years (following loading doses) yields a 90% probability of attaining an AUC of 30 mg·h/L

Standardising neonatal and paediatric antibiotic clinical trial design and conduct: the PENTA-ID network view.

Antimicrobial development for children remains challenging due to multiple barriers to conducting randomised clinical trials (CTs). There is currently considerable heterogeneity in the design and conduct of paediatric antibiotic studies, hampering comparison and meta-analytic approaches. The board of the European networks for paediatric research at the European Medicines Agency (EMA), in collaboration with the Paediatric European Network for Treatments of AIDS-Infectious Diseases network (www.penta-id.org), recently developed a Working Group on paediatric antibiotic CT design, involving academic, regulatory and industry representatives. The evidence base for any specific criteria for the design and conduct of efficacy and safety antibiotic trials for children is very limited and will evolve over time as further studies are conducted. The suggestions being put forward here are based on the adult EMA guidance, adapted for neonates and children. In particular, this document provides suggested guidance on the general principles of harmonisation between regulatory and strategic trials, including (1) standardised key inclusion/exclusion criteria and widely applicable outcome measures for specific clinical infectious syndromes (CIS) to be used in CTs on efficacy of antibiotic in children; (2) key components of safety that should be reported in paediatric antibiotic CTs; (3) standardised sample sizes for safety studies. Summarising views from a range of key stakeholders, specific criteria for the design and conduct of efficacy and safety antibiotic trials in specific CIS for children have been suggested. The recommended criteria are intended to be applicable to both regulatory and clinical investigator-led strategic trials and could be the basis for harmonisation in the design and conduct of CTs on antibiotics in children. The next step is further discussion internationally with investigators, paediatric CTs networks and regulators

Revising Pediatric Vancomycin Dosing Accounting for Nephrotoxicity in a Pharmacokinetic-Pharmacodynamic Model

This study aimed to suggest an initial pediatric vancomycin dose regimen through population pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modeling. A population pharmacokinetic approach was used to analyze vancomycin concentration-time data from a large pediatric cohort. Pharmacokinetic target attainment for patients with bloodstream isolates was compared with clinical outcome using logistic regression and classification and regression trees. Change in serum creatinine during treatment was used as an indicator of acute nephrotoxicity. Probability of acute kidney injury (50% increase from baseline) or kidney failure (75% increase from baseline) was evaluated using logistic regression. An initial dosing regimen was derived, personalized by age, weight, and serum creatinine, using stochastic simulations. Data from 785 hospitalized pediatric patients (1 day to 21 years of age) with suspected Gram-positive infections were collected. Estimated (relative standard error) typical clearance, volume of distribution 1, intercompartmental clearance, and volume of distribution 2 were (standardized to 70 kg) 4.84 (2.38) liters/h, 39.9 (8.15) liters, 3.85 (17.3) liters/h, and 37.8 (10.2) liters, respectively. While cumulative vancomycin exposure correlated positively with the development of nephrotoxicity (713 patients), no clear relationship between vancomycin area under the plasma concentration-time curve and efficacy was found (102 patients). Predicted probability of acute kidney injury and kidney failure with the optimized dosing regimen at day 5 was 10 to 15% and 5 to 10%, increasing by approximately 50% on day 7 and roughly 100% on day 10 across all age groups. This study presents the first data-driven pediatric dose selection to date accounting for nephrotoxicity, and it indicates that cumulative vancomycin exposure best describes risk of acute kidney injury and acute kidney failure

Cefotaxime/sulbactam plus gentamicin as a potential carbapenem- and amikacin-sparing first-line combination for neonatal sepsis in high ESBL prevalence settings

BACKGROUND: Infection with ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae infection is ubiquitous in some neonatal ICUs and increasing levels of antibiotic resistance are a cause for urgent concern. Delineation of bacterial and viral sepsis can be challenging, often leading to patients receiving empirical antibiotics without or whilst waiting for a definitive causal diagnosis. Empirical therapy is often dependent on broad-spectrum ‘Watch’ antibiotics, contributing to further resistance. METHODS: ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae clinical isolates found to have caused neonatal sepsis and meningitis underwent a detailed in vitro screening including susceptibility testing, chequerboard combination analysis and hollow-fibre infection model dynamic analyses using combinations of cefotaxime, ampicillin and gentamicin in combination with β-lactamase inhibitors. RESULTS: Additivity or synergy was found for all antibiotic combinations against seven Escherichia coli and three Klebsiella pneumoniae clinical isolates. Cefotaxime or ampicillin plus sulbactam combined with gentamicin was able to consistently inhibit the growth of ESBL-producing isolates at typical neonatal doses, and the combination cleared the hollow-fibre infection model system of organisms resistant to each agent alone. The combination of cefotaxime/sulbactam and gentamicin was consistently bactericidal at clinically achievable concentrations (Cmax of 180, 60 and 20 mg/L for cefotaxime, sulbactam and gentamicin, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The addition of sulbactam to cefotaxime or ampicillin to the typical first-line empirical therapy could obviate the need for carbapenems and amikacin in settings with high ESBL-infection prevalence

Physiologically based modelling of tranexamic acid pharmacokinetics following intravenous, intramuscular, sub-cutaneous and oral administration in healthy volunteers

BACKGROUND: Tranexamic acid (TXA) is an antifibrinolytic drug that reduces surgical blood loss and death due to bleeding after trauma and post-partum haemorrhage. Treatment success is dependent on early intervention and rapid systemic exposure to TXA. The requirement for intravenous (IV) administration can in some situations limit accessibility to TXA therapy. Here we employ physiologically based pharmacokinetic modelling (PBPK) to evaluate if adequate TXA exposure maybe achieved when given via different routes of administration. METHODS: A commercially available PBPK software (GastroPlus®) was used to model published TXA pharmacokinetics. IV, oral and intramuscular (IM) models were developed using healthy volunteer PK data from twelve different single dose regimens (n=48 participants). The model was verified using separate IV and oral validation datasets (n=26 participants). Oral, IM and sub-cutaneous (SQ) dose finding simulations were performed. RESULTS: Across the different TXA regimens evaluated TXA plasma concentrations varied from 0.1 to 94.0 µg/mL. Estimates of the total plasma clearance of TXA ranged from 0.091 to 0.104 L/h/kg, oral bioavailability from 36 to 67 % and Tmax from 2.6 to 3.2 and 0.4 to 1.0 hours following oral and intramuscular administration respectively. Variability in the observed TXA PK could be captured through predictable demographic effects on clearance, combined with intestinal permeability and stomach transit time following oral administration and muscle blood flow and muscle/plasma partition coefficients following intra-muscular dosing. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicates that intramuscular administration is the non-intravenous route of administration with the most potential for achieving targeted TXA exposures. Plasma levels following an IM dose of 1000 mg TXA are predicted to exceed 15 mg/mL in < 15 minutes and be maintained above this level for approximately 3 hours, achieving systemic exposure (AUC0-6) of 99 to 105 µg*hr/mL after a single dose. Well-designed clinical trials to verify these predictions and confirm the utility of intramuscular TXA are recommended